Right Again? Without Confidence!
Well we at Berman Larson Kane www.jobsbl.com correctly (or luckily) predicted back in August that job creation numbers would return to a normal range in September. And as we look forward to the month of October, based on the number of new orders we are seeing are predicting even a bigger increase this month. Only time will tell luck or skill or neither. I hope we are right again! Jobs are always a good thing for everyone.
“As for my prediction of what is really going on? For some unexplained instinct I believe that we will see an increase over the dismal August number with September returning at least for a brief period to an increase job creation cycle” BLK blog 09/07/07.
“Payroll growth came in ahead of estimates, rising by 110,000 in September, The consensus was for a gain of 98,000 jobs in September, following a weak August report that was revised, well, to a strong report — the previous figure, a 4,000-job loss, turned into an 89,000 gain. However, much of the upward revisions for the July-August months were due to a big increase in government jobs, which added 113,000 to the rolls for those two months.” Wall Street Journal 10/05/07
Consensus of many financial institutions that the sub-prime crisis is already behind us appears to myself a little presumptuous. Maybe the holders of these mortgage back securities have cleverly re-structured to avoid their financial catastrophe, (that is why investment bankers make the big bucks) but the impact has still not fully trickled down to “Main Street”. And the impact on consumer goods, retail, real estate, construction jobs and future development has a ways to go probably years.
So for the moment we at Berman Larson Kane www.jobsbl.com hold our breath. Appreciate the hiring business that our clients continue to bring to our firm. And look forward to continuing to bring value to the hiring process. So as usual we have very little idea of what is really going on?